Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950-2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
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75% confidenceThis study provides updated global estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 204 countries, territories, and 660 subnational locations from 1950 to 2023. It utilizes a novel statistical model designed to handle complex correlations in demographic data across age and time, offering more rapid and timely insights compared to previous methods. These estimates are critical for evaluating population health trends and responding effectively to changing health outcomes.
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Abstract
Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics-including life expectancy and age-specific mortality-are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study-part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023-aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time.
Key findings
- The study covers a comprehensive timeframe from 1950 to 2023, providing the most recent demographic analysis available.
- A novel statistical model was employed to account for complex correlation structures in age-specific mortality data across different locations and time periods.
- Timely all-cause mortality estimates are essential for addressing health trends highlighted by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.